[DID Market] Global Market Size -2
I will publish the remaining article about the global DID market size in the next one. It will be B2B market size will be calculated with Sovrin Ledger Fee and a number of global organizations — companies, institution, etc.
C. Estimation of B2B market size based on Sovrin Ledger Fee and number of organizations (2019.8 by Author)
1.Definition of Sovrin Ledger Fee
DID Write: Public DIDs is the public identifier of organizations who wish to issue credentials. At a minimum, an organization issuing credentials only needs one DID. If desired, a given organization could have different DIDs for different business units or departments, however, in general, an organization should only need a relatively small number. This is a one-time registration fee for a permanent DID — there are no renewal fees. Rotating the keys of an existing DID is also $10.
Schema: Schemas define the attributes or claims that can be included in a credential. While some organizations issuing new types of credentials will need to write their own schemas, as usage grows many organizations will find an existing schema that fits their use case and thus will not need to write their own. Note that the claim types defined by a schema are reusable across different credential definitions.
Credential Definition: Credential definitions are written to the ledger by the issuer of a credential — every kind of credential to be issued needs its own unique credential definition. A credential definition can reference claim types from a single schema or from different schemas. For example, there could be a single Driver’s License schema that is shared between all 50 states in the USA, however, each state must have its own credential definition for its own driver’s license credential. There is no limit to the number of credentials that can be issued from a single credential definition, and there is no cost beyond the one-time registration fee.
Revocation Registry: A Revocation Registry is a large number residing on the ledger representing a cryptographic product of all the “serial numbers” of validly issued credentials based on a specific credential definition. This number enables a credential holder to prove a credential they have been issued hasn’t been revoked by the issuer. A revocation registry is an optional part of a credential definition and must be included in the credential definition for any credential that is revocable. The only time this ledger write is necessary is when the revocation registry that was created as a part of the credential definition is insufficient and an additional one is required.
Revocation Update: A Revocation Update is done whenever an issuer wants to revoke a credential. The issuer writes a new value to the Revocation Registry that removes the “serial number” of the revoked credential from the cryptographic product. Once this happens, the credential holder can no longer produce proof of non-revocation, i.e., a proof that the credential is still valid. However, no one can look at the Revocation Registry and tell which credentials have been revoked, thus preserving privacy. Note that the credential will still reside in the holder’s digital wallet, but the holder can no longer prove it has not been revoked. Also, note that a single write to a revocation registry can revoke any number of issued credentials in a single action.
- Source: Sovrin Foundation
2. B2B market size (with Sovrin Ledger Fee and a number of organizations that can be employed DID)
- Basic assumption: 1) every organization has only one (1) DID, 2) revocation update will occur one time in a day. 3)
(1) A number of organizations in OECD data:
- Because I couldn’t find global data, so OECD data was useful. But, There are only 36 countries are members in OECD. (June 17, 2019)
- If anyone can find global numbers, please let me know it by email (bentconomy@gmail.com)
1~249 employees: (‘2021) 38,367,355 (‘2030) 55,593,869
>250 emplyees: (‘2021) 62,701 (‘2030) 58,035
Total (‘2021) 38,430,056 (‘2030) 55,651,904
(2) % in Market Aoption: Almost 0% (‘2021) < 0.00002% (‘2030) 4.9% — caculated by the author
A number of adoption (annual net incremental) : (‘2021) 3 (‘2030) 88,544
3) Market Size: according to cases
(Case-1) DID Write & Schema only
- Market Size: (‘2021) 114 USD (‘2030) 3,102,476 USD
(Case-2) (50%) DID Write & Schema + (50%) DID Write, Schema, Credential Definition, Revocation Registry, and Revocation Update
- Market Size: (‘2021) 576 USD (‘2030) 7,814,028 USD
(Case-3) (100%) DID Write, Schema, Credential Definition, Revocation Registry, and Revocation Update
- Market Size: (‘2021) 462 USD (‘2030) 12,529,008 USD
D. Forecasting B2C market size (2019.8 by Author)
1. # of authentication by DID: existing authentication market and new market (ID/PW login and KYC)
- Existing market: Acuity (‘2017)
- New market: estimated by the author; please see the Domestic (Korean) Market Size, if you want to see how to figure out it.
- Total (‘2021) 1,117 Billion (‘2030) 2,641 Billion
2. Market Size (as an amount)
Total (‘2021) 1.65 Billion USD (‘2030) 40.3 Billion USD
If anyone has any questions and a better opinion, please contact me with your information (name, company, position and email address). After that, I will get back to you soon. My email is bentconomy@gmail.com. And if anyone uses my idea like this article, please refer to the source with the link.
